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Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Climate-Aware Yield Prediction with Earth Observation Data

Chakravarty, Aditya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate change is increasingly disrupting agricultural systems, making accurate crop yield forecasting essential for food security. While deep learning models have shown promise in yield prediction using satellite and weather data, their ability to generalize across geographic regions and years - critical for real-world deployment - remains largely untested. We benchmark two state-of-the-art models, GNN-RNN and MMST-ViT, under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions using the large-scale CropNet dataset spanning 1,200+ U.S. counties from 2017-2022. Through leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation across seven USDA Farm Resource Regions and year-ahead prediction scenarios, we identify substantial variability in cross-region transferability. GNN-RNN demonstrates superior generalization with positive correlations under geographic shifts, while MMST-ViT performs well in-domain but degrades sharply under OOD conditions. Regions like Heartland and Northern Great Plains show stable transfer dynamics (RMSE less than 10 bu/acre for soybean), whereas Prairie Gateway exhibits persistent underperformance (RMSE greater than 20 bu/acre) across both models and crops, revealing structural dissimilarities likely driven by semi-arid climate, irrigation patterns, and incomplete spectral coverage. Beyond accuracy differences, GNN-RNN achieves 135x faster training than MMST-ViT (14 minutes vs. 31.5 hours), making it more viable for sustainable deployment. Our findings underscore that spatial-temporal alignment - not merely model complexity or data scale - is key to robust generalization, and highlight the need for transparent OOD evaluation protocols to ensure equitable and reliable climate-aware agricultural forecasting.


AI for Scaling Legal Reform: Mapping and Redacting Racial Covenants in Santa Clara County

Surani, Faiz, Suzgun, Mirac, Raman, Vyoma, Manning, Christopher D., Henderson, Peter, Ho, Daniel E.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Legal reform can be challenging in light of the volume, complexity, and interdependence of laws, codes, and records. One salient example of this challenge is the effort to restrict and remove racially restrictive covenants, clauses in property deeds that historically barred individuals of specific races from purchasing homes. Despite the Supreme Court holding such racial covenants unenforceable in 1948, they persist in property records across the United States. Many jurisdictions have moved to identify and strike these provisions, including California, which mandated in 2021 that all counties implement such a process. Yet the scale can be overwhelming, with Santa Clara County (SCC) alone having over 24 million property deed documents, making purely manual review infeasible. We present a novel approach to addressing this pressing issue, developed through a partnership with the SCC Clerk-Recorder's Office. First, we leverage an open large language model, finetuned to detect racial covenants with high precision and recall. We estimate that this system reduces manual efforts by 86,500 person hours and costs less than 2% of the cost for a comparable off-the-shelf closed model. Second, we illustrate the County's integration of this model into responsible operational practice, including legal review and the creation of a historical registry, and release our model to assist the hundreds of jurisdictions engaged in similar efforts. Finally, our results reveal distinct periods of utilization of racial covenants, sharp geographic clustering, and the disproportionate role of a small number of developers in maintaining housing discrimination. We estimate that by 1950, one in four properties across the County were subject to racial covenants.